Will 12 Strong Dethrone Jumanji at the Box Office This Weekend?

After opening behindStar Wars: The Last Jediin its first two weekends at the box office, Sony’sJumanji: Welcome to the Junglehas come on strong by winning its next two frames in a row. This blockbuster adventure faces its biggest test yet this weekend, going up against three newcomers, Warner Bros.‘12 Strong, set in the direct aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, STX Entertainment’sDen of Thieves, starringGerard Butler and 50 Cent, and Roadside Attractions’Forever My Girl, starring Alex Roe and Jessica Rothe. While it certainly may be a close call at the box office this weekend, we’re predicting that12 Strongwill barely be able to take downJumanjiwith $16.2 million, withJumanjiclose behind earning $15.8 million.

Sony’sJumanji: Welcome to the Jungle}, another big hit fromThe Rock(a.k.a. Dwayne Johnson), has been posting minimal decreases over the past two weekends, falling just 25.6% in its third frame and 24.5% last weekend, and with its Martin Luther King Jr. holiday tally, the movie is closing in on $300 million, with a domestic tally of $291.5 million and $674.5 million worldwide, from just a $90 million production budget. While its last two weekends have certainly been impressive, this weekend will likely bringJumanjiback down to Earth, so to speak, and if it hits this $15.8 million projection, that will represent a 42% drop from last weekend.

12 Strongis based on the true, and recently de-classified story of theHorse Soldiers, set in the harrowing days following9/11. The story follows a U.S. Special Forces team, led by their new Captain, Mitch Nelson (Hemsworth), is chosen to be the first U.S. troops sent into Afghanistan for an extremely dangerous mission. There, in the rugged mountains, they must convince Northern Alliance General Dostum (Negahban) to join forces with them to fight their common adversary: the Taliban and their Al Qaeda allies. In addition to overcoming mutual distrust and a vast cultural divide, the Americans-accustomed to state-of-the-art warfare-must adopt the rudimentary tactics of the Afghani horse soldiers. But despite their uneasy bond, the new allies face overwhelming odds: outnumbered and outgunned by a ruthless enemy that does not take prisoners.

We’re predicting the top 5 will be rounded out byThe Post($9.2 million),The Commuter($7.8 million) and newcomerDen of Thieves($7.1 million).Den of Thievesis a Los Angeles crime saga in the vein ofHeat, which follows the intersecting and often personally connected lives of an elite unit of the LA County Sheriff’s Dept. and the state’s most successful bank robbery crew as the outlaws plan a seemingly impossible heist on the Federal Reserve Bank of downtown Los Angeles. The team of bank robbers is rounded out by O’Shea Jackson Jr., Pablo Schreiber and Evan Jones, while the team of cops includes Brian Van Holt, Mo McCrae, Kaiwi Lyman-Mersereau and Maurice Comte.

The top 10 will likely be rounded out byInsidious: The Last Key($6 million),The Greatest Showman($5.9 million),Star Wars: The Last Jedi($5.3 million),Paddington 2($5 million) andProud Mary($4.8 million). Also debuting in limited release next weekend is Magnolia’s documentaryThe Final Year, Indican’s crime thrillerRidge Runners, Oscilloscope Pictures’ documentaryThe Road Movieand Parade Deck Films’This Giant Papier-Mache Boulder Is Actually Really Heavy. Awards season contenders such as Focus Features’Phantom Threadand Neon’sI, Tonyawill be expanding into more theaters this weekend, although it remains to be seen if they can perform well enough to crack the top 10.

Looking ahead to next weekend, 20th Century Fox’sThe Maze Runner: The Death Cure, the final installment of theMaze Runnertrilogy that followed theGladersbattling the nefarious organization WCKD. While that is the only movie opening in wide release, Entertainment Studios will also be expanding its awards season contenderHostilesinto a wide release of more than 3,000 theaters. Also debuting in limited release is Reliance Entertainment’sAiyaary, Parade Deck Films’Desolation, Strand’sHave a Nice Day, Well Go USA’sKickboxer Retaliation, Vertical Entertainment’sThe Neighborand Sony’sPad Man. Take a look at our top 10 projections for the weekend of January 19, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.